16 Years After the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake
Did Pakistan learn any lesson from its largest catastrophe that killed 88,000 people?
The recent earthquake in Hernai Balochistan shows, Pakistan still needs to go a long way to make the vulnerable communities more resilient to natural hazards.
Another earthquake bringing misery to poor people
This year, 8th October marks the 16th anniversary of the devastating earthquake that struck Pakistan’s Northern region, Kashmir and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in 2005.
The earthquake killed at least 88,000 people in a matter of seconds, displaced about 3.5 million people, destroyed hundreds of buildings, and reduced the city of Balakot to rubble. The Kashmir earthquake was the largest catastrophe that happens to Pakistan after independence. The October 2005 earthquake left unforgettable wounds to the victims, which seem to heal with time but are refreshed on 8th October every year.
And last week, a magnitude 5.7 earthquake in different parts of Balochistan killed at least 22 people and seriously injured dozens. More than five hundred homes were affected mostly in rural areas of Hernai Balochistan. The US Geological Survey said the quake had a depth of about 9 km. This is called a shallow type earthquake, which causes a lot of magnitudes. As a result, the roofs and walls of the houses collapsed, resulting in more deaths.
Disasters are mainly a reflection of people’s vulnerabilities. Disasters only occur when a natural or human-induced hazard emerges in vulnerable conditions. It is often the same group of people that are affected again and again. With each disaster event, years of progress and development are reversed.
Why do earthquakes occur in Pakistan?
Whether it is Balochistan or Kashmir, these areas are on the fault line. When an underground tectonic plate on the fault line moves, it causes earthquakes. And earthquakes in these areas are not uncommon.
Due to its location on the fault line, two-thirds of Pakistan’s territory is at risk of earthquakes and an earthquake can strike anywhere at any time. According to the Geological Survey of Pakistan, most of Pakistan is located on the Indian plate, while the Eurasian (Europe and Asia) and Arab plates also pass through here. When Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet, causing earthquakes here.
These tectonic plates are still active and time and again cause earthquakes. The Himalayas also came into being millions of years ago as a result of the collision of underground plates. The Himalayas are still active and growing one centimeter higher each year.
Not only the earthquakes, but Pakistan is also prone to floods as well. Around 70% of Pakistan’s land is exposed to a very high or high level of flooding. When hazards are exposed to the vulnerability and socioeconomic situations of marginalized people it exacerbates the existing conditions.
Disaster Management in Pakistan
The disaster management apparatus is relatively new in Pakistan. Historically Pakistan focused on flood hazards only. However, the Kashmir earthquake changed the perspective of the state on hazards.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) was established in 2010, under which national, provincial, and district level disaster management authorities (DMAs) were set up. The objectives of the NDMA are “to act as the implementing, coordinating and monitoring body for disaster management” at the national level and with the mandate of “managing the complete disaster spectrum, including Preparedness; Response; Recovery and Rehabilitation and Reconstruction”. However, after a decade of inception, NDMA is functional only at the national level. The second tier of provinces and third tier of implementations at the district level DMAs respectively are not fully functional.
What did Pakistan learn?
Undesirable disaster events have the potential to be a catalyst of change. Disaster provides “Windows of Opportunities” to resolve previously unrecognized multitudes of vulnerabilities that a community of people is exposed to.
Pakistan, the 5th most populous country in the world, is historically prone to earthquakes and floods and has suffered severe economic and human losses.
The question here is, did Pakistan learn any lesson from the Kashmir earthquake? “how safe are we from such disasters today?”
The simple answer is NO. Some improvements have been made by establishing the NDMA, an institution at the national level only. However, disaster risk reduction, community engagement, and capacity building are still lagging behind.
The number of deaths from earthquakes in Pakistan has been higher than in other countries. Whether it is the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, Awaran 2013, or the recent Harnai Balochistan earthquake, the biggest cause of death was the collapse of buildings, roofs of houses, walls.
To prevent future deaths and damages, the buildings and infrastructure must be earthquake-proof or resilient to earthquakes. Remember that earthquakes do not cause deaths, collapsing roofs, and walls of buildings cause deaths. Deaths can be avoided if the construction of buildings and infrastructure is earthquake-proof. Japan, Italy, Turkey, and other countries in the world have done it.
Ineffective Building Codes?
After the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, the building code was changed and earthquake clauses were added. But in Kashmir alone, a 2019 earthquake again “partially and severely damaged 70 to 80 percent of the buildings”, killing 19 people and injuring 300.
This is not a good picture anyone wants to see. It seems that the building codes for buildings in our cities are not being fully followed or there are some errors in the codes. In either case, the building control authorities are responsible for the dead people.
There were some timely interventions made after the Kashmir earthquake, the owner-driven stage payment programs worked well in rebuilding the houses. However, where there is no financial dependency upon the state, the housing stock doesn’t have any inclination neither incentive nor any plenty to follow the building codes.
Moreover, If the authorities fail to implement the existing building codes in big cities, then how will it be possible in remote small cities like Harnai? The answer lies only with authority.
Even today, the Pakistan government is in no way prepared for such an emergency. The Harnai Balochistan earthquake and other emergencies reflect the reality of our institutions and preparations. Our institutions are not capable of dealing with the disasters in the city itself, let alone in remote rural areas.
There is a need to reinvent the building control authorities purely focusing on improving and implementing the building codes. Prime minister Imran khan’s five million houses project incorporates this basic rule. When the Capital Development Authority (CDA) and other private housing authorities can enforce the building regulations why can’t the rest of the country start doing the same?
Failed disaster recovery
The rescue and relief phase after a disaster has substantially improved over the years. However, rehabilitation and long-term recovery is lacking attention and planning. This is due to the fact that the recovery required a long-term plan and substantial resources and commitment from relevant authorities. It’s sad to see even after 16 years of the Kashmir earthquake, we are nowhere near in terms of effective recovery. The proposed New Balakot City at Bakrial following the 2005 catastrophic earthquake is nowhere near completion. Only 1,500 plots have been developed by Earth Quake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) so far, due to non-occupation of land by the owners.
Rapid urban growth is meet with urban sprawls, unplanned urbanization in form of mushrooming housing schemes is posing a danger like a time bomb. One can wonder what kind of state control over construction quality and implementation of codes can have when the housing scheme is not even registered.
The future?
It is said that “The disruption of a disaster only heightens pre-existing legacy city issues.”
According to the latest ‘Ecological Threat Report’ by the Institute of Economics and Peace, Pakistan is among the countries most at risk. At the moment, these countries are seemingly stable, but their ecosystems are under threat. The law and order situation here is also weak, which could lead to a severe crisis in the future.
Pakistan is one of the top ten countries affected by natural disasters and being on the active fault line of the earthquake, we have to be most prepared for future natural and man-made disasters. But unfortunately, even after the biggest tragedy in the history of Pakistan, our institutions, after sixteen years, have failed to build the required capabilities.
The outcome of every disaster is the widening gap between the rich and the poor. Now is the time to invest in disaster risk reduction, resilient infrastructure, disaster management apparatus communities, and at the village level.
Albert Einstein is widely credited with saying, “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them”. One can only hope that sanity will prevail in the future. As a nation, we must not wait for another catastrophe to improve our situation.
